Monday, June 4, 2012

Sample Size Matters

I declared on Twitter yesterday that the Oklahoma City Thunder should obviously ensure that Kevin Durant gets more shots than Russell Westbrook. I based this on the fact that Durant had more shots in the two wins thus far against the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals, and Westbrook had more shots in the two losses. It also just happened that the two wins came at home and the two losses on the road. That didn't matter because the stats fit my perception of what is best for the Thunder.

I like to think of myself, however, as one who like empirical evidence and can admit when I am wrong. So...

If you expand out to the rest of this year's playoffs, the Thunder are 5-2 when Westbrook takes more shots, and 5-1 when Durant takes more shots. Pretty close. Even more interesting is that in the 66-game regular season the Thunder were 21-5 when Westbrook took more shots and 24-13 when Durant took more shots.

1. I was wrong.
2. Shoot, Russell, shoot!

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